Multi-Scenario Simulation and Assessment of Ecosystem Service Value at the City Level from the Perspective of “Production–Living–Ecological” Spaces: A Case Study of Haikou, China

Structural changes in land use caused by urban development are one of the most important threats to ecosystem services. An in-depth study impacts that different patterns have on service value (ESV) can provide guidance for sustainable planning and ecological conservation. In this research, we sought explore response mechanisms services under scenarios from perspective “production–living–ecological” space (PLES). This combined Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model ESV equivalent factor method simulate PLES Haikou 2035 three business as usual (BAU), conservation (EC) economic (ED), used spatial superposition method, transfer matrix, optimized cross-sensitivity analysis influence The showed a declining trend 2010 2020 was at risk further decline future. reduction water supply constituted major part loss ESV. simulation results demonstrated EC scenario had rational ecologically efficient allocation PLES, with highest lowest sensitivity changes. research serve an reference optimizing structure maintaining stability